The memory industry s capital expenditures in 2026 will remain conservative, with limited growth in bit output.

TrendForce survey shows that the average selling price (ASP) of memory continues to increase, and suppliers’ profits also increase. Capital expenditures for DRAM and NAND Flash will continue to rise in the future, but the investment in bit output growth in 2026 will be limited. The focus of investment in the DRAM and NAND Flash industries has gradually shifted from simply expanding production capacity to high value-added products such as process upgrades, high-level stacking, hybrid bonding and HBM.

DRAM industry capital expenditure will reach US$53.7 billion this year, and will further grow to US$61.3 billion in 2026, with an annual growth rate of 14%. For NAND Flash, capital expenditures this year will be US$21.1 billion and will increase slightly to US$22.2 billion in 2026, an annual increase of approximately 5%.

Among DRAM suppliers, Micron is the most active, with capital expenditures reaching US$13.5 billion in 2026, an annual increase of 23%, focusing on 1 gamma process penetration and TSV equipment construction. The growth rate of SK Hynix is ​​also very obvious, reaching US$20.5 billion in 2026, an annual increase of 17%, to cope with the expansion of HBM4 production capacity of M15x. Samsung plans to invest US$20 billion, an annual increase of 11%, to penetrate HBM's 1C process and slightly increase P4L wafer production capacity.

TrendForce pointed out that clean room space is also insufficient. Looking at the production capacity of all DRAM suppliers, only Samsung and SK Hynix still have opportunities to slightly expand their production lines. Micron needs to wait for the completion of the new ID1 factory in the United States, which will not be able to produce it until 2027 at the earliest. Any subsequent upward revision of capital expenditures will have a very limited contribution to bit output in 2026.

NAND Flash suppliers, Kioxia/SanDisk and Yangtze Memory have no DRAM business, so they are considered to be the most active manufacturers in expanding production capacity to consolidate their positions. Kioxia/SanDisk invested US$4.5 billion, an annual increase of 41%, to accelerate BiCS8 production and invest in BiCS9 research and development. Micron's goal in 2026 is to slightly increase NAND Flash production capacity and focus on the G9 process and enterprise-level SSD business, with an annual increase in capital expenditures of 63%. Samsung and SK Hynix/Solidigm have reduced or limited NAND Flash capital expenditures, and investment should be prioritized towards HBM and DRAM.

TrendForce analyzes that the explosion of demand in the NAND Flash industry is mainly driven by the rapid increase in demand for AI storage capacity and the insufficient supply of HDDs, which has led to the transfer of orders from cloud service providers (CSPs). This phenomenon is a structural shortage rather than a temporary market fluctuation.

In the past few years, the industry has experienced multiple business cycles, and some manufacturers have become more conservative in their capital expenditure and production expansion strategies. The focus of capital expenditures in 2026 will be process upgrades and the introduction of hybrid-bonding rather than production expansion, resulting in limited growth in bit supply. TrendForce believes that the NAND Flash market will be in short supply throughout 2026.